Good Talk -- A New Pope In A World Of Trump, Carney and Chaos

Bloggers comment: Political VS Spiritual  VS political

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Lots to discuss after a week where Mark Carney sits down with Donald Trump in the White House, Pierre Poilievre fights to hold on to his leadership, and a new prime minister tries to build a cabinet that can deliver on the promises that won an election. But we start with a new Pope, and what that could mean. Chantal Hebert and Rob Russo are here to give some answer

are you ready for good

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talk and hello there Welcome to Friday Welcome to Good Talk Peter Mansbridge here along with Shantel Bear and Rob

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Russo Uh lots happening this week These past few days have been a chocol with

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all kinds of interesting things that uh impact good talk on this week And you know what We're going to start Where are

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we going to start We're going to start in Rome with the pope Leo I 14th is the

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new pope And you wonder okay so why are we talking about this on good talk Well because there's an interesting

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kind of political side to this story in some fashion on that choice of Leo the

0:48

14th an American born in Chicago spent a lot of time in South America and

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Peru a progressive So tell us about that Shantel you start

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us off on Pope Leo the 14th Why Well first I want to say that I wish we were

1:04

doing this live from Rome Yes it would be so nice to be there

1:10

Um it's three for three uh that Donald Trump and his movement have managed uh

1:18

and by that I mean progressive winning elections Canada Australia just recently

1:27

uh and now uh a pope that a on the progressive side of the ledger Two

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things about this First I noted yesterday I went to see some comments and I noted uh that this is this first

1:40

pope from the United States who was born in the United States was fairly poorly received by Catholic members of the Make

1:47

America Great Again movement Uh actually poorly received is a polite way to put

1:53

it Uh why because uh he already has a history of standing up to the

2:00

interpretation of for instance charity by the likes of JD Vance uh who um is

2:06

apparently a Catholic who believes that charity begins at home as opposed to the

2:12

larger view of the church on charity uh likely to stand up for migrants uh and

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others There were some interpretations of the advent of this first American

2:24

pope that it was a sign that America was losing prestige in the world So there were no fears of having an American pope

2:31

that would enhance that prestige I think it's a bit different I think the Catholic Church is anything if

2:38

not political and uh it was a quick election Uh I think

2:44

there was a realization that there were in in the conversation that is has been

2:51

led by Donald Trump if you can call it that Uh there was a real usefulness to

2:56

having an American pope who could fight back or or argue back uh against some of

3:02

the moves of the Trump administration from a position uh of uh more moral

3:08

authority on United States voters than might otherwise have been the case But that's just my take And don't do not

3:15

take this as a sign that I am a specialist of papal affairs I'm not that No we're taking this simply to mean that

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you wish we were all in Rome Oh and not for religious reasons in my case but for

3:27

the larger reasons And it's such a great time of year to be uh in Rome to be

3:33

anywhere in Italy for that matter Um but let's let's focus back on because in

3:39

this new pope still in his 60s he's you know you know barring some kind of

3:45

health emergency he's bound to be around probably for a couple of decades So this

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is a an appointment of consequence for the Roman Catholic Church which for you

3:57

know for the past few years has been trying to um establish a relevance in a

4:02

world that's changed uh you know quite drastically Um Rob what's your what's

4:09

your take on this and what difference this new pope could make in

4:14

kind of the global picture Um and the impact of of Trump on that picture the

4:21

impact of MAGA in the United States all of that What's your what's your take

4:26

Well it it it does seem that uh President Trump has a tendency to help

4:31

elect progressives This is as Shantel said he's three for three I'm more interested

4:37

in the in the um in the role he might play in Canadian politics not directly

4:43

but but maybe indirectly We don't really talk about the faith of our leaders in Canada very much Uh and and uh Mark

4:51

Carney is a man of faith Mark Carney is a man who plays a a large role at his parish St Joseph's

4:59

here in Ottawa Parish that I know a little bit about I got married by the priest at uh at St Joseph's Um and your

5:08

mother there Rob No she was she was too busy cutting

5:13

deals for her for ad revenue from future appearances on on Good Talk um uh and um

5:22

Steven Harper was said to be a man of faith and and kept that very very low profile and you wonder what impact that

5:28

plays in terms of uh of their public policy I I think it will play a role for

5:33

Mark Carney Uh again I go back to a sitdown interview I had with him about a year and a half ago and I asked him who

5:40

are the leaders he admired the most I wasn't surprised when he said John Pianne I wasn't surprised even when he

5:46

said Steven Harper uh he admired both of those men uh for for their discipline Uh

5:52

I I was a little surprised when he said Pope Francis that he was a a great admirer of Pope Francis and and he he he

5:59

listed why why it wasn't discipline but it was for his world vision Um and um it

6:06

wasn't the usual uh kind of boilerplate statement when Pope Francis died There

6:11

was clearly he had a connection with the pope that went beyond the political um

6:17

and uh his statement when Pope Leo was elected the same a a suggestion that

6:24

Pope Leo is going to play a role beyond the role that we're used to um the pont

6:31

of playing and and I I hearken back to a time when I was a young reporter uh and

6:37

and John Paul II played a role globally believe that was critical Nobody thinks

6:44

that uh that Ronald Reagan ended communism on his own He had uh he had

6:50

help He had help from a guy who apparently has a connection to celestial uh powers and uh um we all know the role

6:59

that John Paul II played in Poland It's cap it is it is more than possible I

7:06

think it was Henry Kissinger who dismissed the pope who once said u it was if it wasn't Kissinger it was

7:12

somebody else who said how many divisions does the pope command um but um but we know that somebody who

7:20

does have um particular political skills can um mobilize forces beyond the

7:28

control of politicians Um and uh this pope given where he comes from in the

7:34

United States could play a role in um tempering let's say the tendencies of

7:41

the Trump administration if he chooses to do so I'll be watching for that and I'll be watching for the role Mark

7:46

Carney plays with this pope to make that happen So a few a few notes on this Uh

7:52

I'm told that uh the prime minister would really like to find a a spot in

7:57

his schedule to attend the first public mass of the new pope And it's going to be a challenge to

8:04

find that uh given how much uh how many events are on the prime minister's

8:10

calendar that there are I can't miss I know that Rob doesn't mean that the pope

8:15

would have an influence on social policy in this country No Mark Carney is is um

8:22

not someone who hides the fact that he is a man of faith He's gone to church by

8:27

my count if not every Sunday of the campaign just about every Sunday of the campaign Uh and he talked about praying

8:34

for the pope in his uh message um yesterday to congratulate the new

8:40

pope So I I it is but it is going to be part and parcel of the larger uh world

8:46

conversation I totally agree about that Um the thing that is fascinating and I'm

8:52

going steering a bit away from the pope here about Mark Kernney is that he's been very upfront about the fact that he

8:59

goes to church that he's a Catholic uh that he takes it seriously but he has

9:04

been just as upfront about his views on abortion um same-sex marriage uh and

9:12

other social policies that the Catholic Church doesn't uh like to talk about And

9:18

for that he was rewarded by the vote of a significant majority of women in the

9:25

last election who did not shy away from voting liberal because here was a

9:31

Catholic prime minister who kind of put it right out there And what about abortion And I I did find that

9:38

completely uh fascinating The difference I guess between Stephen Harper uh who

9:45

did not uh lead his party into you know going onto the abortion minefield or

9:52

other places where social conservatives want to go is that Mark Carney has

9:57

inherited a party that has finally resolved that question through uh Justin

10:03

Trudeau's uh decision to say if you are going to run for the liberals you can

10:10

believe as you wish but you will never vote for uh measures that go against uh

10:19

chart their charter rights of women uh of of or the the the same-sex uh

10:25

marriage issue So that allows a lot more freedom to a liberal leader than a

10:32

conservative leader I think I saw this week that uh more than 50 of the uh conservatives coming back to the House

10:39

of Commons reelected or new uh hail from the social conservative wing of the

10:45

conservative movement So it's always harder to especially if you're Mr PV in this

10:52

current predicament to lead a caucus that's got 50 or more that's a high

10:58

number of MPs committed to actually changing uh social policy in Canada

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Um if I could be a fly on the wall I'd love to have been a fly on the wall when the news trickled into

11:12

um the Oval Office about the white smoke uh signaling Leo the 14th because here

11:19

is Donald Trump who um you know claims to have won the Catholic vote in the in the US election in in November uh claims

11:27

to have religious Americans on his side is also the same guy who made a mockery

11:33

of uh the Catholic Church by putting out a picture of himself um an AI generated picture of himself in

11:40

a papal um well just as the pope uh during the selection

11:47

process and also as a guy who has been the u the object of a a good degree of

11:54

disdain from Leo's uh background when they search his social media over the

12:01

last years Um he's gone after Trump on a number of issues and he's gone after JD

12:06

Vance much more recently So you have to wonder how that's going to play out or how it's played out or whether he even

12:13

cares one way or the other uh about who the pope is Um uh if we can if we can go

12:21

back to the issue of abortion uh that Shantel raised and and I can connect it to what you're asking Uh I think you're

12:27

asking why would Catholics in the United States support somebody like Trump Why would evangelicals why would people of

12:33

faith support somebody whose morals are clearly um not always mored to to

12:39

scripture or to the Ten Commandments Uh and and the answer to that question is

12:45

Supreme Court justices He gives some justices on the Supreme Court that overturned Roie Wade Um he he he

12:53

delivered for them politically even if he didn't deliver for them in in in

12:58

terms of the gospel Um so there there there is a political victory for for

13:06

people of faith including Catholics who have very strong feelings Still in the uh in the United States the issue of

13:12

abortion has not been resolved And before we go further I should correct myself It wasn't Henry Kissinger who

13:17

asked how many uh divisions the pope commands It was Joseph Stalin And I want to draw a distinction

13:24

between the two men Way to get

13:30

yourself on that one Yeah Um Okay

13:35

Um you know I I find it interesting that that that this election has so much

13:40

political relevance in our world today Uh and I and I'm glad we uh spent a few minutes on this I want to take our first

13:46

break early right now because I want to get into the uh the Carne Trump uh meeting I know it's uh you know a lot of

13:53

people have commented on it already over the last three or four days Um so it uh

13:58

it is Fridays where the where the audience comes to YouTube to tell us what it really meant and uh what we

14:05

should expect as a result of it Uh but first uh we'll take our break We'll be right back after this

14:30

and welcome back Segment two of uh Good Talk with Shantelli Bear and Rob Russo I'm Peter Mansbridge Good to have you

14:37

with us Uh you're listening on SiriusXM channel 167 Canada Talks or on your favorite podcast platform or you are

14:43

watching us on our YouTube channel Glad to have you with us no matter which platform you are joining us on Okay the

14:52

the meeting in the Oval Office between um Mark Carney and Donald Trump and

14:58

there are you know the the the Trump sickopants on the one side on the couch

15:04

I mean I I just find that whole scene so bizarre I don't call our our our group

15:10

on the opposite couch the sick offense because I don't know they just don't look like the little naughties that you

15:16

see sitting next to Trump Um anyway it uh it lasted 31 32 minutes of which

15:23

Trump as is normal in these kind of things spoke for almost all of it I think three minutes is what Carney chose

15:29

to speak Not that he didn't try to get in a couple of times but I think wisely he backed off He decided you know what

15:36

I'm not going to I'll just let him do his thing I've made my point the main point he wanted to make that Canada's

15:42

not for sale never will be Um and moved on After three or four days of

15:50

reflection on what happened in that room what's your sense What's your take

15:56

Um Rob first this time Yeah I I um first

16:02

of all there was no hemorrhaging okay There was no catastrophe That that was the low bar And we used to have this

16:08

discussion in in uh in the newsroom at at CBC and other newsrooms that I've

16:13

I've been in You know people reporters are fond of saying if a plane lands safely it's not a story If a plane

16:19

crashes uh it's a story Well the plane landed safely and it was a story Uh it's

16:24

a story because this is a president of the United States who likes to line the runways with landmines Um and and so

16:32

Carney managed to land land the plane safely The other thing that I thought was very interesting

16:38

um that happened afterwards in the press conference at top the Canadian embassy on Pennsylvania Avenue there Mr Carney

16:46

was asked in French uh you know what really did he accomplish given that the tariffs remain and Trump said that the

16:51

tariffs are are are going to be there Uh he paused a second and said uh the

16:58

tariffs stay he said for now and perhaps not in an enduring way he said So that

17:06

to me suggests that in the more important discussion in the Roosevelt room over lunch uh there was something

17:13

beyond the broche of the relationship between the two guys that was discussed

17:19

uh and that officials have uh from both sides have gone to work Um now I I don't

17:25

expect that there's going to be an agreement uh in any substantive way Um

17:30

but I do think something more beyond the broch happened that they are working towards something Um we we all know that

17:41

uh that the uh Canada US Mexico agreement is up for expiry next year and

17:47

that the the Trump administration wants to advance those discussions When I hear

17:52

uh Mr Carney say they are there for now and perhaps not in an enduring way It

17:58

sounds to me like they're discussing what can be done to either ease those tariffs or eliminate them perhaps while

18:05

we work towards an advanced discussion on the Canada US Mexico agreement

18:11

Shantel a bit somewhere else Um well I'll start with you talked about

18:17

psychopans Is that how you say it Well there was a really brief shot of uh the

18:22

Canadian delegation on the other side of the room and they looked anything but

18:28

complacent um or happy to be there Let's not linger

18:34

on that I also discovered that someone who has occasionally used body language

18:39

and my face to send opinions that Mr currently does have that knack of using

18:46

body language uh to send messages even if he doesn't get to speak Uh and I

18:52

think from a domestic perspective in strictly in political terms this is a prime minister um whose supporters got

19:00

very little time to to to to test And I think his performance uh in the White

19:06

House was really important in the sense that it uh it shored up confidence in voters that they had not made a mistake

19:14

uh that the the the there was there that it wasn't just for show Uh and I think a

19:21

lot of people were seeking that reassurance I heard it a lot on the streets here in Montreal this week We

19:27

picked the right guy uh on the basis of what they'd seen Now I like everyone

19:34

else I couldn't be a fly on the wall at that lunch Uh but I know that a lot of

19:40

larger issues not Canada US issues were discussed and I get the sense that Mark

19:47

Carney up to a point is playing a longer game than getting a reprieve on Canadian

19:52

tariffs or US tariffs in Canada or a negotiation based on Kisma uh that he is

20:01

of the view uh rightly I believe that this tariff war is not a Canada US war

20:07

it's a global war and it cannot be resolved in a way that really works for

20:15

Canada until it is resolved in a larger way for other Canada other American

20:22

partners uh and certainly not along the lines of what was heralded as a great deal uh for the UK this week by

20:31

President Trump Let's be serious If we if we ended up making a quick deal with

20:37

the US there is a risk a possibility a chance that we would become a vaso state

20:43

economically Why Because yes no tariffs but in exchange you espouse our tariffs

20:49

on everyone else We build fortress North America Uh that goes against our

20:55

long-term interest uh we would be trading short-term gain for long-term pain and I think there is a a decision

21:03

in the making uh in and around Mark Carney as to how quickly we want to uh

21:12

show results for this versus um making sure that everyone is on site

21:19

By the way a deal with the Trump White House is not a trade deal It's it's a deal with someone who can

21:26

change his mind overnight It doesn't go through Congress It's not binding It's

21:31

not a deal It's it's kind of a a a saving face motion There is a sense that

21:38

uh things are not looking well for the Trump administration in the US The popularity of the president is down

21:45

Within a month or two the pain of those tariffs on American consumers will be very obvious So there is an argument

21:53

here to to take one's time rather than

21:58

rush to some kind of UK US uh style deal

22:04

I also believe for obvious reasons and I know on that on solid ground Mark

22:09

currently is not about to drop France the UK Germany uh Japan on the way to

22:15

chairing the G7 in midJune uh for obvious reasons uh together they

22:23

are stronger Uh what he did secure at that meeting by the way was uh the official agreement of President Trump to

22:30

show up to the meeting uh a meeting that will also feature President Zilinski from Ukraine So all in all I I I think

22:39

the appetite for a quick fix is uh probably lower now than it may have been

22:45

a month or two ago If I if I was going to draw the the outlines up of what they

22:51

they might be thinking uh because Shantel is right They they don't want the UK deal The UK deal is not ratified

22:58

by Congress So it's not overseen by Congress Um it it is ephemeral Uh the

23:05

outlines of the deal might be uh you want an advanced discussion of KUSMA We will give you that We will begin to

23:13

discuss that will set a date for that and the terms for that probably later this year In exchange you eliminate or

23:20

drastically reduce the tariffs that are on Canada now And then we get into what

23:27

the Canadian strategy was in 2018 Um they're they're they're uh talking to

23:32

Steve Verhuel uh and he might come back in in some capacity Um but it in the

23:39

scenario the 2018 scenario Canada did drag its feet Trump is not wrong about Christian Freeland being obstreporous by

23:46

design Why Because 2018 was a midterm congressional election year Uh and they

23:54

are looking at that playbook and thinking it might work again that if you have an agreement that is due to come up

24:01

in 2026 Why would you uh why would you have an advanced negotiation Well you

24:07

use the clock again You take the tariffs that are on Canada now Canada's steel aluminum um and uh outside USMCA

24:16

um car parts Uh you you take those off we drag our feet we watch the rivullets

24:24

of sweat come down the orange makeup as prices rise in the United States Uh and

24:29

they are going up for everything from dolls as the president has noted to strollers Um and he's he's feeling the

24:36

pressure of prices rising um and and very little manufacturing as yet coming

24:42

back to the United States So that would be how I would draw the kind of broad

24:47

outlines of of what might be happening over the next year or so You know Shantel mentioned a few moments ago

24:54

about how the pain is incoming uh in the United States for consumers are going to

24:59

really start to feel in the next month or two Uh it's coming this way too I mean it's coming the Canadian way as

25:05

well and you know for consumers and for workers who are are going to be either laid off or lose their jobs as a result

25:11

of some of those Uh so there there's a lot of pressure on which leads me back in a way to the to a kind of the the

25:19

question that I was asking last week about what Carney's own role is going to be I mean you're right Shantel we saw

25:26

was it uh Dominic Leblon and Melanie Jolie on the couch on the Canadian side

25:34

um for those meetings earlier in the week but you get the sense or at least I get the sense given his background that

25:41

there's really only going to be one guy in the room for Canada when it gets to the really hard part of negotiations

25:47

Sure there'll be stuff at the officials level but is is do do you feel that

25:53

Carney is going to be the one who handles this one more himself than delegating it to a minister in the sense

26:00

that Justin Trudeau did delegate a lot to Christopher Freand Uh well the the

26:06

context is different Uh this isn't back then Uh and I'm not saying this to

26:13

defend Justin Trudeau's economic skills It wasn't his his main interest as prime

26:19

minister but back then it made a lot of sense to delegate it to Christopher

26:24

Freeland Why Because the people around Donald Trump were adults that you could

26:30

deal with and they would put pressure on Donald Trump to come up with reasonable

26:36

outcomes We know that's not really on this time It's a lot more complicated

26:42

And most of those adults are not in the room and have zero influence or only negative influence on Donald Trump So by

26:49

definition whoever is prime minister was always going to have to take a larger

26:56

role in this conversation And it does seem that uh

27:01

President Trump has more respect for Mark Carney's credentials at least for now uh than he did or ever did for

27:08

Justin Trudeau But I totally expect uh people like Dominic Lablan who gets uh

27:15

late night calls from uh from uh is is visv uh Howard Lutnik Howard Lutnik uh

27:23

to to be very much in that loop Why because those relationships are important and there they there were

27:30

there there are many things you can say about Dominic Lablan but he is really good at building relationships in the

27:37

old boys club style and at this point that is what we need uh someone who can

27:44

go and smoke cigars obviously usually is not about to go smoke cigars with anyone

27:49

um and you know kind of have this pi uh the way it worked he's practiced this

27:55

with Doug Ford among others So I understand the temptation to think that

28:02

Mark Carney is going to be a one-man show I do not believe that that uh is necessarily going to happen but I do

28:09

expect him to be more on the front line of this one than Justin Trudeau ever was for those reasons And it is important um

28:17

Chantel mentioned relationships um that if you do have a decent relationship at

28:22

the executive level you can get a lot more done We all remember um Brian

28:28

going over the heads of uh of Jim Baker and others who chiefs of staff to to

28:34

presidents particularly Reagan uh and getting things done for Canada because he had that personal relationship We all

28:41

remember the exact opposite John Cretian and George W Bush had a terrible relationship and that impeded things

28:48

We've seen the Trump uh the Trump Trudeau relationship impede things If you have some kind of personal rapport

28:55

at the executive level it can help you Now is it going to help us with somebody who is as mercurial and transactional as

29:03

as Donald Trump We we we impossible to say maybe not But at at a minimum at a

29:10

minimum he'll be able to pick up the phone and maybe get his call returned a little bit sooner than Mr Trudeau would

29:16

have gotten Um difficult difficult days ahead because when I think back of the

29:21

salad days of that executive relationship which is Reagan Mol Rooney there were crises right up until the

29:28

last minute of that free trade agreement There was like a crisis a month uh that

29:34

almost derailed the thing So one can imagine that it's going to be far more difficult to try and get some sort of an

29:40

agreement with Donald Trump But at a minimum if you have that that relationship at at the executive level

29:48

there will be talking there that might be able to clear some of the underbrush away But we all know Brian Malone was a

29:54

master at building relationships I think we've seen the likes of of Brian Malrone

30:00

on that score uh since uh he moved on uh and was no longer prime minister I also

30:06

note that um yes building a relationship with the president is probably important

30:12

to Mark Carney but it didn't stop him from calling up uh his Denmark

30:17

counterpart guess Denmark being the place that is defending Greenland from

30:23

President Trump's delusion that he's going to take over uh part of a NATO member's territory Um and and basically

30:32

putting on social media how great their conversation with Mark Carney and and Denmark uh and how they stand

30:39

shouldertosh shoulder So I don't think he's going to be playing A lot of people

30:44

uh and everything that Rob said is true about Brian Malrone but a lot of Canadians were uncomfortable

30:50

uh with what they perceived as the proximity between Brian Malrron and uh

30:57

Ronald Reagan And remember and there and US presidents and remember Jean actually

31:04

scored points by signing a few votes for me I won't be going to play golf which I

31:09

think he eventually No you fishing Oh fishing Yeah that's where I won't be going fishing with the president But I

31:15

won't go fishing So I He ended up playing golf with Clint He did He did

31:20

every time he came to Washington What What do we know He doesn't fish but he water skis That's what he does on

31:26

watering Um so I don't think that Mark Carney wants to build with Donald Trump that

31:34

that kind of relationship that Brian Malrone had with Ronald Reagan I think there are clear signals This

31:40

conversation with Denmark uh was a clear signal that uh yes uh I I want to get

31:46

along with the president but I am not going to get along with his every whims Which brings me back to the economic

31:54

fortress North America idea of very bad idea for our u sovereignty A word we will use again I

32:02

suspect later on this program You both you both mentioned um earlier in the

32:07

conversation the the UK US deal that was announced yesterday Uh such as it was

32:13

I'm in the UK right now as as you both know Um and the early reaction to it has

32:19

not not been good for Star Murray They he's taken a bit of a pacing uh on this

32:26

Um but there were times yesterday when both the UK people and the US people

32:31

saying well you know this could be a blueprint for others but that seems to be dismissed pretty much out of hand by

32:41

everyone else And if that's the case why is that the case

32:46

Well because it's not enforcable beyond the whims of of a Trump White House Um

32:51

there there it's it's not as legally binding It's not an enduring agreement Uh it it doesn't have the protection or

32:58

the oversight of Congress Um it's it's a way to mllify for now

33:05

bricks I would imagine but there's still a 10% tariff on uh UK goods coming

33:10

coming into the United States Um I I I'm not I'm not sure why the celebration Uh

33:17

I I I know why Donald Trump is celebrating It's because he badly needed a victory He he promised 90 deals in 90

33:25

days Uh and this is his first one He badly needed one Um but uh I'm not sure

33:33

that Well I I know Canadian officials never would have signed a deal like this Um it's not a deal Yeah But Trump

33:42

explained during that lengthy uh ovel office spectacle earlier this week is

33:48

his his theory is we're going to give each country a number uh and we're going to shake hands with

33:55

them That that is something that is would be useless uh to Canada to tell

34:02

you the truth And I understand the UK post Brexit is um is is having serious

34:11

difficulties Uh but I'm not convinced that this is a model that its former

34:16

European partners are going to think is really enlightening Nobody's going to say "Isn't it great for the UK that

34:23

they're no longer part of the European Union because they can make deals like those?" That's not happening Obviously

34:31

you know the you know he um he got a Carney got a lot of calls including from Denmark um after the the Trump meeting

34:40

Why Because they want to know how he pulled the pin out of the grenade that is Trump That's that's one of the

34:47

reasons H how is it How did you prepare Um I mean if you looked at Trump's face

34:53

even when uh Carney delivered the line that was clearly rehearsed about uh

34:59

Canada not being for sale um uh Trump had that half grin on his face that said

35:06

"I knew that line was coming I'm prepared for that line." And yet I got to admit it was probably well delivered

35:12

and well timed There was an appreciation for Trump of that line I I I thought I

35:18

thought it was um one of the two or three moments of irony because Carney kind of looked

35:23

around at the Oval Office which now looks like a Las Vegas bordello with all of the gold in it uh and said "This

35:30

place is not for sale and neither is Buckingham Palace." He kept a kind of a straight face Um but and and then

35:38

delivered the line Yeah I'm sure some of those were as you said rehearsed uh

35:43

earlier on but they worked and and they did gain a certain degree of attention from different places around the world

35:49

And Trump is a showman who appre appreciates a well rehearsed line delivered with good timing Um just to

35:56

close out the the file on the UK situation Uh they are as Shantel says they are still in a mess and still

36:02

trying to figure their way out which made it makes it even more ironic that last week in the local elections here

36:11

the party that is led by the guy who pushed Brexit through Nigel Farish

36:17

really did well like did very well in those elections And people are going like "This doesn't make sense." Well a

36:23

lot of things don't make sense in today's world Uh and that was just one of them Okay we're going to take our

36:29

final break come back and uh try to figure out what's going on in Pierre Polyv's world uh because it too has uh

36:37

has issues We'll be back right after this

36:58

Welcome back Final segment of good talk for this week Shantel and Rob are here I'm Peter Mansbridge Good to have you

37:04

with us Um okay Pierre Polyv you know barely a week after the

37:10

election result where he lost his seat lost the election and those questions

37:15

still hanging around his house situation Uh but within a week he was out in

37:20

Alberta uh stomping on the grounds of the writing he's going to wants to run in as a bi-election once that becomes

37:27

available uh to do um as a sign that he's hanging on to not

37:33

only his representation in the House of Commons but his leadership of the Conservative party The early indications

37:40

were at least publicly that he was going to succeed on that front and that he was in a good position

37:47

to succeed on that front Is it that clear when you pull away the uh the

37:52

curtains on the uh on the Conservative party and look inside to what's really going on Shantel

38:00

Okay let's start with the seat I you won't need to be spending too much time campaigning there since it's probably

38:07

the safest conservative seat in the country Um it was won on April 28 by uh

38:15

the MP who was giving up his seat with 82% of the vote going to the

38:20

Conservatives It's hard to imagine Mr of managing to bring that uh down to a

38:27

number that would not see him enter the House of Commons which he will do at the first opportunity since the prime

38:34

minister is not going to sit on as he could for 6 months on calling the

38:39

bi-election So that settles the seed thing which is the least of his concerns Um if yeahv wanted to demonstrate that

38:48

he still had you know a lot of political pull u and as political personnel that's

38:55

not the seed to demonstrate it It's too easy a test The other thing that

39:01

happened this week uh was that the caucus met and yes everyone went in and

39:06

we all remembered covering John Turner after 1984 when he was leader of the opposition So everybody went in and said

39:13

how uh they supported the leader or didn't talk didn't speak to cameras

39:19

whatever their mind was But inside the um the caucus had to make a decision as

39:25

to whether it would uh accept the terms of something known as the Reform Act

39:30

which is a product of Michael Chung when the conservatives were in government

39:35

It's a a law that if a caucus accepts it after an election allows caucus members

39:43

to vote down the leader at some point If you accept its terms give yourself that

39:50

obligation It's valid for the entire duration of that parliament It's not a one-off thing Uh and there was a vote on

39:58

that in caucus Should we basically give ourselves the power to fire PAV a power

40:05

that the conservatives gave themselves when Andrew when Erin Oul lost the last election the 2021 election and used to

40:13

house them And the vote from my understanding was crystal clear About a

40:19

100 MPs voted to give themselves that power A bit more than two dozen opposed

40:24

it So in clear as of now the tables are reversed on Pavvenes caucus The MPs uh

40:35

in the co in the official opposition caucus have the power to fire him if

40:40

they believe that he is not um taking them down a path that would lead to

40:47

victory They have given themselves that power at a time where it has been demonstrated in the dying days of the

40:53

campaign that PAVF had become a drag on the party that the conservative brand was more popular than the leader So are

41:00

they going to use it tomorrow Why would they If anyone is going to replace Mr PV

41:06

in time for the next election that anyone needs time to organize But should people be thinking

41:13

of organizing and I mean outside of the conservative caucus they now know uh

41:20

that they can pull the necessary strings to bring down

41:26

uh at any time over the course of this parliament And so now you can bet he will or he

41:35

will not be leading the party I am not totally convinced that the next uh

41:40

campaign will see Mr lead the conservatives and I believe that um he understands that he has that

41:47

problem There were inside that caucus room lots of criticism

41:53

um well there was criticism of Andrew Sheer's interim leader a protective move

41:59

someone who will not become leader because he has and lost Um and there was

42:04

criticism also obviously of Mr PAVF's chief of staff Jenny Burn who apparently

42:10

is still is saying "I would bet that if the waters become more choppy for Pia

42:17

Palev's leadership this is who he would ditch overboard to give the sharks a

42:23

body." Uh and that won't happen if that's the case for for a while But uh

42:31

there is no clear sailing here for the leader of the official opposition He is

42:37

no longer in the position of prospective prime minister who can say if you don't do my bidding you're not going to be in

42:43

my cabinet or if you don't do my bidding and your province is in trouble me as prime minister I won't be talking to you

42:50

So it's a completely different context for him Okay just before I get Rob's thought on this just to make sure I

42:58

understand this right that vote if they choose to have it could happen at any

43:03

time in the life of the The way it works is a a a proportion of

43:10

MPs has to require to ask for that vote and then it takes place but they have

43:16

agreed to the terms of the reform act for the duration of this parliament and

43:22

it's not a one-off I'm not saying that they would repeatedly vote to keep or not keep but uh they do not need to use

43:30

it And even if he called a quick vote tomorrow to establish his moral

43:36

authority that doesn't mean that it couldn't come up again in a year

43:42

Yeah that was the most significant thing that came out of the caucus Uh none of the soothing words reassuring of support

43:49

for uh for Mr Pv matter Uh there is now a sword a very sharp sword over his his

43:56

neck Um you know conditions were were were kind of demanded as well uh in in

44:02

that in that meeting from what I understand that he has to reach out to people like the premier of Nova Scotia

44:09

and the premier of Ontario Um and and that um they they tried to ward off what

44:16

they knew were coming This is the the people around Mr the demands for changes at the top by

44:21

saying that um I think the words they used while getting rid of people wouldn't be good We need to enlarge the

44:27

tent now to bring in more people Um which is being taken by some

44:33

conservative MPs as a signal that they're going to try to dilute the influence of of Jenny Burn and and

44:39

others But that's still not a resolved question either Um pe people weren't thrilled with the

44:47

uh the ad that he put out there of uh of uh him and and his wife Na walking

44:54

through the wheat fields because it contains some of the same slogan there

44:59

There was I'm going to grow and learn but also the you know we're going to come back so that you can have beautiful

45:04

homes on your safe streets and and and and so there there there was a sense

45:10

that the the suggestion that he would learn was negated by going going back to the the slogan sloganering Um beautiful

45:18

visuals Um that wheat it it it almost looks blue because I'm sure the wheat is

45:23

blue in that writing as well There's there's absolutely no presence of opposition whatsoever Um and there are

45:32

people if they're not organizing they're getting ready outside the caucus There there are people who know that they

45:38

cannot be the ones to wield the rusty shiv Um but uh when that shiv if that

45:45

shiv gets used there are people who are going to be ready

45:51

Let me just ask you this you know if he's running in Alberta

45:56

maybe a federal seat but it's quite likely that he's going to be asked at some point about the the referendum

46:01

question What what's his answer going to be Especially in a writing that is Shantel says like 83 85%

46:08

you know hard right conservative He doesn't have a choice Yeah There there are no options You cannot be the prime

46:15

minister of Canada or even uh the leader of a federal conservative party and

46:21

start um trying to wiggle yourself out of the question of secession for Alberta

46:27

And he is uh landing himself in ground zero of what could become a deep split in the conservative movement There are

46:34

people um who probably have political ambitions who have already chosen their

46:40

side Jason Kenny has emerged as one of the most vocal uh defender uh

46:47

of Canadian unity in Alberta Palev cannot do less than Jason

46:54

Kenny on this Uh even if he's running in Alberta uh because what would that look

47:02

like Think of the optics Uh think of the optics in Ontario

47:08

So I'm guessing he's going to say Alberta should get a fairer deal um

47:13

pipelines etc But at the end of the day he does have to take a very very clear

47:19

stance on this or risk harming his own leadership even more than it is already

47:25

harmed And this is a serious people keep talking about how is Mark Carney going to deal with you know a referendum

47:32

separation This is a real challenge for the conservative movement uh it could lead to a breakup inside

47:39

that movement uh and inside Danielle Smith's own party I've covered

47:45

referendums You have too You know one thing This is a first of all a conversation between

47:53

Albertans That's that is who is having that conversation It's not a

47:58

conversation between some person at Queens Park or uh in the National

48:03

Assembly It is a conversation amongst Albertans over their political future

48:08

And by the way I don't feel that Canada's cause is not going to be

48:14

defended vigorously by a number of Albertans including the leader of the NDP but also including people like Jason

48:22

Kenny There was a poll that came out yesterday Angus Reed that 65% of UCP

48:28

supporters Daniel Smith's own party support uh Alberta's secession Um so the

48:35

only answer Mr Palev can have on on this question is uh those people are good conservatives but I disagree with them

48:42

Uh and I will defend Canada That's that can be his only answer But I it does it

48:48

it it does appear that there is a great risk of Daniel Smith unleashing the furies Uh and and uh we have all seen

48:56

the furies before We have all negated them Um David Cameron is another example of somebody who unleashed the furies uh

49:04

and and paid a political price for it One one hopes that uh it won't be uh we

49:10

won't get there Um and Mr Carney by agreeing to hold a first minister's

49:16

meeting the first uh in-person first minister's meeting in years first of all

49:22

and the first one I think that's been held in Western Canada ever Um but uh

49:27

there there is a great deal of work to be done Uh we talked a lot about the Trump menace Uh there is great peril in

49:35

federal provincial relations over the next little while It it appears the prime minister has decided to make this a priority I think I think he has to

49:43

because we've all seen it I I'm you like Shantel I was in Montreal in 1995 and I

49:50

remember the independence movement during the referendum going nowhere and then with three weeks to go he appointed

49:56

Lucan Bush Sha as his chief negotiator and the furies were unleashed and we

50:02

came within a whisker of Canada breaking up So you you you do not unleash the

50:07

furies uh in a in a situation like that in a country as vast and diverse as Canada and one fears that the furies are

50:15

have been unbuttled Okay I've only got a couple of minutes left Um did any of you

50:21

find it odd yesterday that um Aaron Oul somebody who in

50:27

fact faced that you know rusty shiv that you talked about uh Rob um after 21

50:34

election and and lost his job Many believe you know that that campaign was

50:40

led by Pierre Polyv Um but he came out yesterday in an interview with Vashi

50:45

Capello saying he should stay Polio should stay He should stay as leader of the party We have to move forward that

50:53

way Any of you surprised that a he even chooses to say anything And to say that

50:58

I've only got a minute or so left Well it's like the question on unity for Pep You can't not answer

51:05

uh because it would be Eron won't say if Pv should stay which makes him say that

51:11

he should go U I don't put much stock in anybody's testimony that Palev should

51:18

stay for the foreseeable future Uh because things change as we all know and

51:25

uh and people evolve in their thinking Is that polite enough

51:31

That's pretty polite Okay Rob you get the last thought I think he's on probation and the probation is probably

51:38

merited according to conservatives who say he blew a 25point lead because he

51:44

didn't um foresee the change political circumstances that a new campaign would

51:49

require And and then when the uh circumstances uh changing were obvious

51:54

to him he didn't adapt He never really embraced the opportunity to take on

52:00

Trump He did not go after Trump in a fully frontal uh uhh way and and he has

52:06

he has to be judged for that and that judgment will happen over months Let's not forget it took four months for for

52:13

Mr Oul to to be forced to step down We're we're one week after the election All right we're going to leave it at

52:19

that Um thank you to both Rob and Shantel Great discussion as always Uh

52:25

we'll be back in seven days The buzz will be back tomorrow morning 7 a.m in your inbox You can subscribe at

52:31

nationalnewswatch.com Costs nothing Um good to talk to you Have a great

52:37

weekend Thanks everybody for listening and we'll talk again on Monday

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