Bloggers note: VERY WELL PUT the SAGA CONTINUES
video at the link below
JUST IN: Carney WALKS OUT —
Trump’s Ultimatum COLLAPSES the $700B USMCA Deal
CLICK for video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zw4knXo0Y4
TRANSCRIPT
If you look at what is happening between
Washington and Ottawa right now, it does
not look like diplomacy. It looks like a
breakup. A messy, expensive, dangerous
breakup unfolding in real time. For 70
years, the border between Canada and the
United States was the longest undefended
line in the world. It was not just
geography. It was an economic engine. It
was the backbone of North American
stability. And for decades, it was the
one relationship global markets assumed
would never fracture until this morning.
Because just hours ago, something
happened that was supposed to be
unthinkable. Cameras were waiting in the
Rose Garden. The podiums were set. The
pens were ready. Donald Trump was
prepared to announce what he believed
would be another victory, another moment
where Canada, under pressure, would
bend. But the other podium stayed empty.
Mark Carney didn't show up. He didn't
sign the paper. He didn't offer a
counter proposal. He didn't play the
game. Instead, he boarded a plane, flew
back to Ottawa, and issued a statement
that may change the price of the car in
your driveway, the food in your fridge,
and the future of millions of jobs
across the continent. Trump thought he
had Canada cornered. He thought he had
all the leverage. Carney didn't blink.
And now the consequences are spreading
faster than anyone in the White House
can contain. This wasn't some minor
dispute over dairy quotas or lumber
shipments. This was the six-year
mandatory review of the US MCA, the
massive trade agreement that replaced
NAFTA and governs roughly $700 billion
dollar in annual trade flows. It keeps
auto plants running in Michigan and
Ontario. It keeps energy moving into New
York. It keeps grocery shelves stocked
in California. Economists believe the
review would be routine because the
integration is too deep to unravel. They
were wrong. According to leaks from
inside the negotiation team, Trump
walked into the final meeting with a
demand that crossed a line. He didn't
just want better terms. He wanted
control. A sunset clause that would
allow the United States to cancel the
deal unilaterally every single year. A
trade agreement held hostage renewed
only if Canada stayed obedient. In other
words, Trump wanted a gun on the table
every January. He gave Carney an
ultimatum. sign by noon or face a
universal 25% tariff on every Canadian
product starting Monday. Trump treats
nations like contractors, alliances like
real estate deals. Someone wins, someone
loses, someone submits. But Mark Carney
isn't a contractor. He's a central
banker, a strategist, a man who spent
decades in rooms where power is measured
not in slogans, but in capital flows,
supply chains, and leverage. And Carney
understands something Trump forgot. You
cannot bully the country that supplies
your energy, builds your industrial
inputs, and sits at the center of your
manufacturing ecosystem. Carney's
response wasn't a tweet. It wasn't a
tantrum. It was silence. He packed his
delegation. He left the White House and
at 10 p.m. Ottawa sent a simple
notification to the US State Department.
Canada is formally withdrawing from the
review process. The deal is not renewed.
The framework that held North America
together is collapsing in real time. And
the shock you're seeing on television is
the sound of Washington realizing they
pushed too hard and the one ally they
rely on most just walked away. Some
viewers may think this is politics.
They'll patch it up next week. But look
at the evidence. This isn't posturing.
This is rupture. Three receipts make
that clear. First, the leaked Redline
memo Trump's team slid across the table,
dated just 3 days ago. It demanded total
access to Canada's Arctic waters,
dismantling dairy supply management
within 30 days, and threatened section
232 national security actions against
Canadian aluminum if Ottawa refused.
This wasn't negotiation, it was
surrender terms. Second, the markets.
Normally, when trade tensions spike, the
Canadian dollar drops. Investors flee
into the US dollar. But today, the
opposite happened. The Canadian dollar
ticked upward. Why? Because investors
are betting against Trump. They see
Carney's move as strength. They know
Canada has spent the last two years
securing critical mineral deals with
Germany, Japan, and South Korea. Markets
are signaling that Canada has options,
and the United States is becoming the
unstable partner. When Wall Street
trusts Ottawa more than Washington, the
world has flipped upside down. Third,
the border. Reports are already emerging
from the Ambassador Bridge, the busiest
trade crossing in North America. Trucks
slowing, inspections intensifying, cargo
delays. That is code for pressure. Trump
is squeezing the border immediately,
trying to force Canada back to the
table. But Canada isn't scrambling. They
are diverting. Rail shipments through
Vancouver and Montreal are being
prioritized toward Europe and Asia.
Ports are shifting flows. This looks
less like panic and more like
preparation. While Trump tries to close
the door, Carney is opening windows to
the rest of the world. And that is what
should terrify Washington. Because if
Canada has a plan B, then Trump never
had the leverage he thought he did. So
why is this happening? Why would Donald
Trump risk detonating a 700 billion
dollar trade relationship that has
anchored North American prosperity for
decades? It comes down to control. Trump
operates on a simple model, one that
belongs to an older era. He believes
that because the United States economy
is larger, the United States always
wins. He believes pain only flows in one
direction. If he puts tariffs on you,
you suffer and he collects the victory.
But the world has changed since 2016.
And Trump hasn't caught up. Because
modern trade is not a scoreboard. It is
a machine. A supply chain web so dense
that if you pull one thread, you don't
just hurt your opponent, you strangle
yourself. Take the auto industry. A
single car part crosses the US Canada
border seven times before the final
vehicle rolls off the line. Seven times.
engines, transmissions, electronics,
aluminum frames, all moving back and
forth in a choreography that depends on
speed and trust. If you slow that border
down even slightly, you don't punish
Canada, you shut down assembly lines in
Ohio, Tennessee, Kentucky. And that is
why right now executives in Detroit are
flooding the White House with calls.
They are warning Trump that if this
collapse lasts even a week, tens of
thousands of American workers could be
furled. Plants don't adjust overnight.
They stop. Trump thinks he is punishing
Carney. But he is pulling a lever
attached to his own economy and now he
is trapped. If he backs down, he looks
weak. He looks like Carney called his
bluff. If he doubles down and closes the
border tighter, he risks triggering an
economic shock that spreads through
manufacturing, agriculture, and energy.
You can already see it in his language.
An hour ago, Trump tweeted, "Canada is
treating us very badly, very unfair. We
will charge them big tariffs." That is
not the sound of a master negotiator.
That is the sound of a man who just
realized he pulled the pin on a grenade
and forgot to throw it. And the deeper
problem is that Trump is fighting a
trade war from the 1980s. He thinks this
is about steel and lumber. He doesn't
understand that this is about energy,
minerals, and the infrastructure of
modern life. Canada supplies more than
half of the oil the United States
imports. Heavy crude, the kind US
refineries are built to process. If
Ottawa restricts flows or adds export
taxes, gas prices spike overnight in
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan,
America first does not work when the
cost of fuel becomes the punishment. And
Carney knows that. This is where the
contrast matters. If Justin Trudeau were
still in charge, the response might have
been emotional speeches about
friendship, appeals to history,
diplomatic apologies. Carney is
different. He is a former central
banker. He ran the Bank of Canada. He
ran the Bank of England. He has spent
his career looking at power not as
theater, but as systems. He doesn't
yell. He calculates. And what Carney is
executing right now is something experts
call strategic decoupling. the idea that
Canada cannot afford to remain
permanently dependent on a partner that
has become unpredictable. Carney knew
this moment would come. He knew Trump
would eventually try to weaponize trade.
So, for the last 2 years, Canada has
been quietly building a safety net,
critical mineral security agreements
with Europe, long-term energy
partnerships with Japan, expanded
Indoacific trade routes, Canada
positioning itself not as America's
supplier, but as a global resource
superpower. Because the world is
starving for uranium pod ash freshwater
rare earths. Canada has them. The United
States needs them. And by walking away
from Trump's ultimatum, Carney is
sending a message to global markets.
Canada is open for business, but the
price just went up. Trump hates
alliances. He hates multilateral
frameworks. He hates international law.
Carney is using those exact systems to
box him in. It is a highstakes gamble.
And make no mistake, Canada will feel
pain if the border tightens. There is no
denying the interdependence. But Carney
is betting the United States will feel
more because American consumers are not
insulated from this. If USMCA collapses,
the era of cheap goods in North America
ends. Grocery bills rise. Fertilizer
imports from Canada become more
expensive. Housing costs surge as lumber
prices climb. Aluminum inputs for phones
and EVs spike. This is an inflation
shock waiting to happen. One that could
make 2022 look mild. And beyond
economics, there is something darker
unfolding. The American umbrella is
closing. For 70 years, the deal was
simple. The US protects the free world
and in return, it writes the rules. But
if the US cannot even maintain a trade
agreement with Canada, its closest ally,
then who trusts Washington? Not Japan,
not the UK, not Mexico, not Europe.
Carney understands this. He is preparing
Canada for a world where America is no
longer the anchor but an island. And
today, history captured the moment
perfectly. As Carney was leaving the
White House, a Fox News reporter
shouted, "Mr. Prime Minister, are you
worried about the president's wrath?"
Carney stopped. He didn't smile. He
didn't get angry. He simply said, "You
can't tariff gravity and you can't
sanction geography. We aren't going
anywhere, but we aren't taking orders
anymore." Then he got in the car. That
is the difference. One man wants
applause. The other man knows he holds
the map. So where does this go now? We
are in uncharted waters. And the next 48
hours may determine the economic future
of this continent for the next 20 years.
Because once a trade framework
collapses, rebuilding it is not like
flipping a switch. Trust is not a tariff
you can remove with a signature. It is a
foundation. And that foundation is
cracking. Right now, three scenarios are
forming and none of them are
comfortable. Scenario A is the cooling
off period. This is the optimistic
version. Wall Street panics so hard that
Trump is forced to call Carney back.
Advisers scramble. Business lobbies
flood Washington. They sign a temporary
extension. Trump declares victory,
claiming he saved the deal, while Carney
returns home knowing he held the line.
That is what rational actors would do.
But knowing Trump and knowing how calm
Carney looks, this may not be where we
are headed. Scenario B is the trade war.
Trump follows through. A universal 25%
tariff begins Monday. Canada retaliates,
but not blindly. Carney will not tariff
everything. He will target what hurts
Trump's voters most. Bourbon,
Harley-Davidson's, Florida citrus, swing
state manufacturing inputs, political
pain applied with precision. The border
slows to a crawl. Inspections multiply.
Auto plants idle. The stock market dips
sharply. This becomes the pain phase, a
test of endurance. And right now, Carney
looks like the man built for waiting.
Trump is emotional escalation. Carney is
strategic attrition. Scenario C is the
full breakup. This is the nightmare.
Trump declares a national emergency. He
invokes security powers. He freezes
assets. He seizes leverage. Carney
responds by redirecting energy exports,
restricting critical mineral flows,
accelerating trade corridors toward
Europe and Asia. USMCA is formally
dissolved. North America becomes two
rival economic zones. This is closer
than anyone wants to admit. And here is
what makes it so dangerous. Usually in
moments like this, leaders calm it down.
They pick up the phone. They deescalate.
But Trump doesn't do calm. And Carney
has decided he is done waiting for Trump
to grow up. This is not just about trade
policy. This is about the future shape
of globalization. For decades, North
America functioned as a single
integrated industrial platform. Goods
moved seamlessly. Supply chains were
optimized for speed. Companies built
factories assuming the border would
always remain predictable. If that
assumption dies, everything changes.
Corporations will rethink where they
build. Investors will rethink where they
trust. And ordinary people will feel at
first, not in speeches, but in prices. A
more expensive car, a more expensive
home, a more expensive grocery cart. And
beyond the economics is the geopolitical
signal. Trump's move tells the world
that even America's closest alliance is
transactional, that no agreement is
permanent, that US power is increasingly
wielded as threat, not stability. that
pushes allies elsewhere. It accelerates
multipolarity. It creates openings for
China, for Europe, for new blocks.
Carney understands that. He is
positioning Canada not as a dependent
neighbor, but as an independent node in
a fractured world economy. Canada is
resourceri, energy rich, mineralrich,
water rich. In the coming decades, those
are the currencies of power. And Carney
is betting that geography, not rhetoric,
wins. This is why his closing line
matters so much. You can't tariff
gravity and you can't sanction
geography. It is not just a quote. It is
a doctrine. Canada cannot move. The
United States cannot replace Canada
easily. Pipelines cannot be rebuilt
overnight. Supply chains cannot be
rrooed instantly. Factories cannot
teleport. Trump is trying to fight
physics with tariffs. Carney is fighting
with reality and now the continent is
holding its breath because this is a
poker game with the highest stakes
imaginable. Trump went allin on a bluff.
Carney called it and now we are all
waiting to see the cards. The next
market open will be chaos. The next
political statement could decide whether
this becomes a temporary crisis or the
end of an era. So the real question is
not just whether Mark Carney is
protecting Canada or whether Trump is
overplaying his hand. The real question
is whether North America is about to
enter a new age, one defined not by
partnership but by rivalry. History is
moving fast, and this may be the week
the old North American order finally
breaks.
