.Former ambassador Ivo Daalder and Lt-Gen. (Ret'd) Andrew Leslie on whether Canada is under more pressure to meet NATO's two per cent of GDP target for defence spending as another Donald Trump presidency looms.
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TRANSCRIPT
stood up said well sir uh if we don't
pay and we're attacked by Russia will
you protect us I said you didn't pay
you're delinquent he said yes let's say
that happened no I would not protect you
in fact I would encourage them to do
whatever the hell they want you got to
pay you got to pay your
bills that's President elect Donald
Trump earlier this year saying he would
encourage Russia to do quote unquote
whatever they want to any NATO member
country that does not meet the 2% of GDP
Target for defense spending can Canada
currently does not meet that Target but
the Freds did promise this summer to do
so by 2032 according to the latest data
from NATO Canada is expected to hit 1.3%
of GDP on defense spending this year the
fed's updated defense policy released
back in April says that Canada will hit
1.76% of GDP by the end of the decade I
spoke to Trump's former ambassador to
Canada Kelly craft this week who was
insistent Canada can do better and Trump
will expect that I think it's really
important that Canadians understand a
strong military is your way of
deterrence especially in the Arctic I
mean you no longer just have a threat
from Eastern Europe from that area you
have Russia and China in the Arctic and
I think the Russia and China are not
going to wait until 2032 as your prime
minister has made the statement that he
would have the 2% of the GDP by 2032
that's that's they're not going to wait
this is a real
threat here to talk more about all of
that is retired lieutenant general
Andrew Leslie also of course a former
member of the federal government under
Justin trudo who served as a point
person actually on the US Canada
relationship during the first Trump term
and former US ambassador to Nato Evo
dder is with us as well hi to both of
you thank you very much for making the
time uh General Leslie I'll start with
you I was thinking today uh of when you
were that point person and all the work
that you did uh you know on behalf of
the government when it came to NAFTA and
the ups and downs of all of that and I
wondered from your perspective based on
that experience living through Trump's
first Administration how seriously we
should take it that you know his closest
Canada Envoy during those years is so
directly telling us to speed up our
spending on
defense it's not only the Americans who
are telling us this and not only the
present designate and the former
Ambassador Kelly it's the entirety of
NATO is telling us the same thing we're
the world's 10th largest economy but we
can't seem to get our act together to
actually produce usable defense output
at a time when our friends and allies
needed most and let's not forget we're
part of an alliance so that they'll come
to our assistance if we need it we go to
theirs if they do and we've fallen short
and we've been caught flat
footed uh Ambassador uh d I wanted to
ask you something similar I I mean
there's so much to unpack when it comes
to Trump's rhetoric that I think it
becomes easy to dismiss some things
particularly where NATO is concerned
because he's been very dismissive of the
alliance at times he said things like
the the clip we played but the former
Ambassador Kelly K she was very very
serious in you know two separate
interviews for example that that's the
number one priority for Donald Trump
when it comes to our relationship with
Canada in your view how serious will it
be for this country that that we do have
to speed up defense
spending so I'm actually not clear that
this is the number one priority for
Donald Trump but it should be the number
one priority for Canada and I think
fundamentally this is not an issue about
Donald Trump uh Joe Biden has told the
uh Canadians repeatedly that they needed
to spend more on defense Barack Obama
told Canadians they repeatedly he did so
in the Canadian Parliament uh this is an
this is not because the United States
somehow desires and and makes it thinks
it's important to you spent more on
defense it's that Canada needs to spend
more on defense most importantly because
it's a member of an alliance that has
agreed Canada agreed to spend 2% of GDP
in 2024 not
2032 2024 that's this year Canada's
failure to do that is it makes it an
outlier in this Alliance an outlier on
the side that Canada normally wouldn't
be an outlier Canada has obligations not
to the United States not to Donald Trump
but to 30 other NATO members and it is
failing in those applications I think it
is wrong to think that this has anything
to do with Donald Trump it has
everything to do with your own
responsibilities as a member of the
allines and frankly given the threats
and I think Ambassador craft was right
given the threats that you face in the
Arctic and other places spending more on
defense you don't do as a favor to
others you do it because it's important
for your own National
Security I think the reason uh General
Leslie that I bring it up in the context
of of Donald Trump is because it's also
by Kelly CRA for example being
explicitly tied to the economic
relationship which you know is is at the
forfront given the threat of tariffs and
NATO and he's and you know to to amb
Ambassador dildo's point he's not the
first person or that you know people
associated with Trump are not the first
PE people to associate our economic
relationship with defense spending uh
but I I guess I I I wonder how from your
perspective realistic you think it is
that Canada comp lies with with this
even though the threat of you know
economic something punitive in the
economic realm is there it's also very
expensive to even meet the Target by
2032 that's what the government will
will certainly tell us right I I believe
that the federal government has entered
sort of a whining an unpleasant stage in
its Evolution where they're now whining
that they can't meet that which they've
been promising to do since
2014 and the current prime minister has
promised this every year he's been in
power and now suddenly in 2023 he
realizes good Heavens what follows 2024
I think we owe NATO some money in terms
of investment in our defense
capabilities which we have not done
right now Canada is struggling to
maintain 2,500 troops air land in the
sea overseas our frigs are older than
the sailors which sail and we can only
afford to have one modes sized warship
as our contributions to the entirety of
the Pacific region our our is undefended
we have 300 Armed Forces administrators
we've got about 1600 Rangers armed with
a rifle and a scoo and their job is not
to deter to observe and
report Russia has between 25 to 35,000
troops in their Arctic Circle and the
Americans bless them have 22,000
superbly trained well equipped people in
Alaska their Artic who are actually
defending us and the Americans predating
Donald Trump are sick tired of us not
paying our fair
share ambassad as you yeah go ahead go
go right ahead yeah I mean I just want
to add to this I think the reality is is
that Donald Trump actually is not
particularly interested in Canada
spending more in defense because he's
not particularly interested in alliances
the reason that Canada needs to get
serious about defense and needs to get
serious about defense together with its
European and other allies is because the
the Trump Administration this particular
Trump Administration is going to be no
friend of NATO it's going to be no
friend of alliances uh the idea that you
can rely on the United States whether
it's the 22,000 troops in Alaska or
indeed the 100,000 troops in uh in in
Europe to be there to defend the
interests of an of of the Europeans
which I happen to believe are also
American interests but I don't think Don
Donald Trump believes that he believes
that Europe should be defended by
Europeans uh he probably believes that
Canada should be defended by Canadians
just as he thinks Americans should be
defended by by America under those
circumstances the era on on Which
Europeans and and Canada have relied on
the United States as the security G
guaran and in fact the the force that
will defend them that era is coming to a
close uh that's the reality and if if
Canada can says we cannot afford 2% of
GDP to spend on defense well can you
afford to keep country because that's
what you're really talking about given
the threats that that we're facing and
the reality that the United States can
no longer be counted on as an ally so
under those circumstances not just what
NATO needs it's not just what Canada
what what the threats are it's what
Canada needs to
do I think General Leslie wants to jump
in on that point too go
ahead I I would just like to build on
the whole idea of strategic risk
management and what we're facing is an
unparalleled immersion of threats um not
the least of which Russia China Iran and
a variety of other dictatorships all of
whom seem to be coalescing around the
idea that the rule of law no longer
holds true uh the president of the
United States their first job is to take
care of America and then after that it's
discretionary there's every instance to
believe that we should prepare for the
case when the United States starts to
withdraw from International commitments
in terms of blood and treasure assigned
to defend others and I believe the
current government made has made the
repr prehensible error despite evidence
that could have guided them if they've
been willing to listen to invest in our
defense so that we have our defense
capability which we can use to help
others should we choose to do so to take
care of ourselves because the era of
relying on the United States to defend
Us in the face of all adversaries may be
over I just have time for one quick
question uh for Ambassador dder and the
government will say and I I POS part of
it already how expensive it is that
there are a myriad of other priorities
and that they have increased spending or
at least the allotment of Defense
dollars significantly since they came
into office of course that still puts
that Target out till 2032 what what
would you say um to respond to
that so the government faces the same
problem that every other government
faces Canada is hardly the only country
that has competing uh uh Financial
interests whether it is social uh
pensions Health what name it every
government has that and yet somehow
every government or at least all the
major governments in Europe have been
able to get to the 2% even though they
face similar backlogs of of
underinvestment that includes Germany
which is this week this year spending 2%
of GDP because it promised to do so it
says in 2014 after Russia first invaded
and ceased Crimea that we would reach 2%
by by GDP
GDP uh by 2024 Canada signed on to that
agreement it had 10 years to figure out
how to get there and to say in 2023
sorry we need another nine years isn't
good enough the reality is it's not
about how you spend it that your
security is being eroded uh in a way
that will not benefit the Canadian
people if your security is eroded then
your health care and everything else
will fall by the wayside too it is job
one of the government and this
government has not done what it promised
to do and it needs to do that not
because the US asks it not because NATO
asked it but because it think and said
that that was important and it agreed to
it okay I'm going to leave it on that
note I appreciate both of you making the
time uh for the conversation tonight
retired lieutenant general Andrew Leslie
and former US ambassador to Nato Evo
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