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to rock the liberal government this week
as a growing number of liberal MPS say
the Prime Minister needs to meet with
caucus after conservatives flipped the
liberal stronghold of Toronto St Paul's
behind the scenes we heard from MPS who
say Trudeau needs to answer questions
arising from that shocking upset
questions about the future prospects of
the party and the tenability of the
prime minister's leadership but publicly
liberal cabinet ministers continue to
support their leader and their party's
messaging watching the conservatives win
in St Paul means that like everything
we're working on could be thrown in a
trashman um and that doesn't worry me
because I'm a liberal that worries me
because I'm a Canadian there's no
tricking people like there isn't no you
know there's some kind of like message
that we can put out there that's going
to magically change things people have
to see who we are and what we're doing
and then they have to ask the question
whether or not it's good
enough so what is a party leader and
their advisers to do in the wake of this
unpopularity but still a year and a half
out from an election
David Hurley has been in a similar
situation to this as a former Chief
campaign strategist for the Liberals and
he joins us now David it's good to see
you thanks for coming on great to see
you David thanks for having me so you
were working with Kathleen win back when
things were looking Grim for her as the
liberal premier of Ontario going into
the election she eventually lost against
Doug Ford what parallels do you see to
that political Dynamic to where Justin
Trudeau is now
nationally well I think that actually
the um the Liberals might be in federal
liberals might be in a slightly more
difficult situation because what we
faced in Ontario was a general fatigue
with the length of time the Liberals had
been in office and some serious push
back to Kathleen wi's leadership but the
policy agenda of the government was
quite
popular um in the province and what
we're seeing federally is um if you look
at all the polls in aggregate is that
there's both a desire for change in the
faces who are governing the country but
also a desire for significant change in
in policy Direction in the country so
that that makes it pretty difficult for
the incumbent to in any way manifest
itself that way so what do you do uh if
you're Justin Trudeau and his advisers
now is there a lesson they can take from
what you decided to do because Kathleen
wi ultimately decided to stick around
and go into that election campaign which
was a bit of a buzz saw we we know the
pmo is calling around seeking feedback
from caucus and trying to plot a path
forward I mean how do you even approach
that task in this kind of a
scenario well uh there's only so much
room for backro advice and there's only
so obviously only so much room for
campaign advisers we have a limited role
in this process so I had
conversations uh with the premier about
uh reelection prospects many many times
and my she would ask me about the
leadership not that she was going to
take my answer but she was interested in
my answer and I would tell her cons
consistently the same thing that
probably um she represented both our
best chance to possibly win the election
and we were within 10 points of the
conservatives generally so um she gave
us our best chance to win but she also
had the strongest prob possibility that
we would lose quite badly uh and that
turned out to be the case so I guess
from that perspective one of the things
they might reflect on is what is the
genuine and true risk associated with
either staying or leaving um and a very
cold uh cleare eyed and coldhearted
assessment of that the other thing
though that M wi let led a very active
government right through to the end and
in and in the last 18 months or so
introduced a number of really important
initiatives that she cared about very
strongly so that's the other thing I
mean the prime minister is saying that
he's got a lot more he wants to do but
he's being a bit parsimonious in telling
us what that is yeah and so uh you know
I mean there's so there's two
considerations I would presume
fundamentally in addition to the
person's own ego which is do I have
something so important to get done that
I want to stay and try to do it and the
second thing is what's the risk of me
leaving versus what's the risk of me
staying right and on the why stay I when
when I spoke to the Prime Minister last
week I asked him what is it you want to
do in a fourth term that you haven't
been able to do in the the first three
and his answer was to continue to meet
the moment which is a continuation of
what's Happening rather than a
forward-looking agenda as important as
meeting the moment may be but on that
second consideration on on on um you
know should I stay or should I go
essentially the consequences of me
staying the consequences of me leaving
if you were called in to speak to Justin
Trudeau the way you were with Kathleen W
how what would your assessment to that
scenario be for him right
now it's changed I'll be honest it's
changed up until probably
um uh a year ago I would have said that
he was so significantly the most
talented political person in the front
bench of the government or in in the
liberal party uh that his campaign
skills his continuing popularity in the
province of Quebec his ability to reach
British Colombians all made him the best
chance for the liberal party and both
the top reward for staying and probably
the lowest risk
um in staying but I I mean I think that
things have hardened out in the public
so
considerably uh over the course of the
past year that I I've had to revise my
view on that and I'm more now of the
view that he will not win and it's
conceivable although not likely that
somebody else would and secondly that
there's little risk that anybody could
do worse than he's likely to do it's
interesting because I I I listened to
one of your uh podcasts on the hurly
Burley a few weeks back where you spoke
with Kyla ronell and Fitch who had done
a deep dive on and in particular how
liberals feel about the Prime Minister
and his possible Replacements and
there's an overwhelming sentiment that
people don't want his replacement if
that should happen to be anyone closely
associated with them so the obvious
choices inside the cabinet uh are
damaged by their proximity to him if
there is any change so so how do you
make a change if you're going to make
change that maybe doesn't raise your
ceiling but elevate your floor because
that has to be a consideration at this
point in the political
cycle well that polling uh by m Rell and
Fitch uh really said two things and
they're quite relevant to this
discussion both of them which is to say
that she said that of the people that
are currently voting liberal in the
country the 20% of the country that's
voting liberal they actually don't
really want Trudeau to leave and if you
were to leave they would prefer that he
be replaced by Christia Freeland who
represents a synonym for him a standin
um same policies same values same um
approach uh it was the people that the
Liberal Party would need beyond the
people it currently has in order to
actually win an election that didn't
want anything to do with people who'd
been part of this government and for and
we're looking for something uh
completely different um and that's not
unusual I remember doing doing some
polling for Christy Clark back when she
was thinking about running for the
leadership of the BC Liberal Party and
what that polling showed me at the time
was that the only person that could
possibly win an election for the BC
Liberal Party was somebody who had not
been in Gordon Campbell's cabinet so
that's you know it's it's it's a uh it's
it's a it's a fairly standard thing that
people say well I want change so I mean
the party the Liberal Party federally is
in this position now where if the prime
minister's staying and he's asserting
aggressively that he is if the prime
minister is staying he needs to change
virtually everything else I mean the
country's in such a mood for Change and
he's the obvious thing to change and if
if the part's going to frustrate that
desire for change then the direction the
signature policy items the key people
you see around them in in the cabinet
Etc there going to have to be wholesale
change taking the status quo into
another into another election it's like
walking straight into to a wood chipper
so so where do you think it goes David
like what you know I I don't know if you
have any particular insight into what
they're planning and what they're
thinking I know there's an agitation in
the caucus looking for a Caucus meeting
so they can clear the air and maybe
finish the conversation they started in
London Ontario at the summer caucus
Retreat a year ago so far that doesn't
seem to be happening um there's no
evidence he's going to change his staff
around him and there's some dis
disagreement over whether he even should
what do you think prime minister Justin
Trudeau and his his inner circle land on
over the next week or so as as a Next
Step absolutely nothing of any
consequence I don't think they will
change anything I don't think he will
change senior staff I think a year from
now Christia Freeland is still the
Minister of Finance uh and Mr Trudeau is
is still in his job although likely
thinking about resigning then David I've
had a theory about this for a long time
being the prime minister of Canada is
evidently the best job in Canada because
nobody has ever quitted nobody has ever
gotten up one morning and said I don't
want to be the Prime Minister anymore so
they leave either when they are defeated
in an election or they resign facing
both Inevitable Defeat and imminent
defeat right those are the only
circumstances in which people leave this
job and so I don't have any reason to
believe he's going to be any different
than that so I expect everything to be
exactly the same for the next year and
then sometime next summer or fall for Mr
trudo to resign well that's that would
be awfully close to that October uh
election date but you know it's the best
job and and probably October election
date's not not locked in stone is it
well there's the fixed election has to
be October 20th and they're trying to
amend it to make it October 27th but you
know all these things can change if
you've got a willing says yeah
Constitution says five years yeah well
we'll see uh the idea of pushing into
2026 uh that that might be even jug me
Singh might might recoil at that uh
David Hurley I always appreciate the
Insight thanks for joining me here today
man good to see you there's a bit of
turmoil and a whole lot of anxiety in
liberal ranks following Monday's
shocking byelection law and a riding the
party had held for decades and that's
raised questions inside and outside of
liberal caucus as to how the party and
the Prime Minister should respond people
in St Paul's made a decision and we're
responding to that but that was about
frustration of being able to express it
without changing governments and I
understand that and that message is
heard loud and clear everyone in caucus
has a lot more work to do listening to
to Canadians constituents including the
Prime Minister and I know that there's
some hard conversations that are are
happening behind the scenes right now um
it's almost a shame that we're not
Gathering as a caucus until after the
summer okay some liberals want that to
happen sooner so should the Prime
Minister gather his caucus members to
hash out what happened and do it quickly
we just heard from the government house
leader late this afternoon and he
doesn't think so have a listen to
that Mr Trudeau has won three elections
he has uh an extraordinary number of
accomplishments uh and has many more yet
to come and I know that uh I and my
colleagues from the Uday look very much
forward to being candidates alongside
him in the next federal election and as
a follow-up do you think caucus needs to
meet following the election results
before the scheduled uh retreat in the
fall no I don't and do you think Justin
Trudeau should stay
on as I say it's not something that I
feel comfortable to share I think it's
discussion that are being done uh
internally I think ultimately it's his
decision and I
that okay we're going to talk about all
of that with the power panel James Moore
is a former conservative cabinet
minister Andrew Thompson is a former
Saskatchewan NDP cabinet minister and
here with me in studio Cameron Amad
former head of communications for prime
minister Justin Trudeau uh Cameron start
with you um Sophie chatel there right at
the end a new mp uh not saying whether
she thinks the Prime Minister should St
on stay on saying she's not comfortable
with that what do you make of that it
seems like an easy thing to do well I
think it's a tough time for the liberal
caucus in the team broadly right now
obviously any liberal past or present
who comes and tells you that it's
everything is fine is spinning and not
telling you the truth so I'm not going
to do that no one's saying that just so
you
know so you know they have to I think
what they have to do now is really take
a bit of time to like breathe reflect on
what's happened listen to the message
that voters sent I think a lot of the
signaling that we heard from the
government and from the Prime Minister
after this result was in the right
direction right this is a wakeup call we
understand people are frustrated we need
to learn from this we need to spend the
time over the summer to figure out how
we can improve and how we can really
resonate better so that's something that
they all have to do together as as for a
Caucus meeting that's something that I'm
probably not best suited to answer on
right now but probably um if there is a
call for one they're going to have to
hold one before the next scheduled one
uh but at the end of the day this is
clearly a tough time for the entire team
what I do think though we need to
remember is a bit of perspective in all
of this there is such a a breathless
call right now for all kinds of
speculation and Leadership questions
internal Party politics Etc when there
are really important issues for the
country to Grapple with and Canadians
care about and frankly want the
government to focus on and also would
want the opposition to focus on so
that's what the government needs to do
when it comes back from this reflection
period is focus on those important
issues right so so so James you know
right now the the prime minister is
making clear and the people around him
are making clear they're going to
reflect and they're going to re-engage
and he's not leaving and so starting
from that point what do you think is
happening right now in that reflection
and re-engagement process and and what
do you think they need to do and can do
in the in in the coming weeks to calm
things
down I I probably prayer you know that
something cataclysmic will happen in the
Joe Biden Donald Trump debate tonight
that'll take something else in the
headlines and then you know maybe by
this weekend people will get so
distracted by their summer vacation
plans in July 1st that they'll maybe
start thinking about other things the
you know the NHL draft is coming up so
the hockey cohort of the Canadian
population can focus on that NBA draft
is tonight so they distraction I think
is what they're hoping for so people
think about other things but it doesn't
that's not going to sort of sort of
smooth over the realities of things you
know Nick Nanos had a survey out last
week that showed 177% of Canadians a
whole 17% of Canadians think that Justin
Trudeau should be the liberal leader in
the next election campaign and the last
election campaign he got 32% of the vote
and over 60% of liberal supporters now
say that he should not be the leader of
the Liberal Party any longer so it it's
it's fair and for Cameron and others and
I I understand the dynamic that you're
in frankly I've been there uh the
dynamic that you're in to say you know
we need to take the lessons the lessons
are the public is done with Justin Chau
and they want a new a new prime minister
and they wanted probably a new party to
be to be in in office the conservatives
have been up in ahead of the Liberals at
least 10 now 20 points in the polls for
well over a year they have a 5 to1
fundraising lever over the Liberal Party
the public is done with Justin Trudeau
that's the ver you know the public is
not frustrated by inadequate access to
passports they're not frustrated by you
know insufficient uh support for or
approach to the capital gains inclusion
right the public is done with Justin
Trudeau being the Prime Minister it's
pretty simple so the only remedy to that
is the self-evident one that the prime
minister is not prepared to do and I
think he's looking for a graceful exit
if he can find one uh but as David
Hurley mentioned in the last segment
that that's going to be very hard for
him to do in the long term so so Andrew
like you know James uh argument that the
public has done with Justin Trudeau but
Justin Trudeau may not be done with
being prime minister and so what do you
expect to see uh you know in in the
runway that is there if if if they are
true to their word that they're going to
stay and they're going to fight this
next election you know I think one of
the issues that happened with the
byelection is it was a wakeup call for
official Ottawa especially liberal
Ottawa that all the stuff that they
believed wasn't true that wasn't you
know actually in people's minds it was
just resonating in the you know the the
Cyber sphere actually did come home to
roost and I think that they they're
framing it in a difficult way which is
putting this on the Prime Minister
himself if you ask the question
differently and I saw polling this week
that said do you think the Liberals
deserve to be reelected the answer is
overwhelmingly no that's not putting
Trudeau's name in it this is something
much deeper and I think it speaks to
what Cameron was saying which is they
really do need to take the summer to go
figure out what it is that needs to
happen to recalibrate to reintroduce the
the party and the government uh you know
to the people to show that they should
in fact have that confidence
now things could turn I mean the economy
could get better mortgage rates can come
down a bit more a lot of the pieces that
are you know um as we said uh you know
out west if you want to beat a dog
you'll find a stick those kind of sticks
get taken away you know maybe it's not
going to be quite so tough for the
Liberals but they're really facing an
uphill battle to convince people who are
change voters that they shouldn't
continue to seek that change so so
Cameron you know you were there in 2015
2019 and 2021 as part of Team Trudeau um
you I I've been speaking to Liberal
caucus members who say the prime
Ministry needs to demonstrate change at
least for the caucus how do you
demonstrate change this at this stage in
in the life cycle of a government when
clearly there's an appetite for it like
how do you do it at this point well uh
that's a big question that they have to
Grapple with I mean there's no one who
can provide an answer to that in a very
simplistic way at this moment I mean and
just to to what James is saying In
fairness to you James everything you're
saying could be true and it's absolutely
a monumental challenge a hurdle that
they have to overcome uh the reason I'm
sounding probably a little more
optimistic than most of the Liberals
that you are talking to is because we
also have to maintain some perspective
not only is it I think largely unhelpful
for everyone in the chattering class to
in you know obsessively focus on polling
and internal leadership speculation and
so forth because it takes us away from
the issues but it's also just that
speculation there is so much that can
change within a year a year of bad
polling one negative bi elction result
albeit a very bad one something that's
obviously very hard for the whole team
to swallow is not indicative of what the
future may hold it is not uh equal the
direction that the country is going to
take a year plus from now there are so
many factors that can change and another
thing that um is important to remember
is that one one thing that all of his
opponents have always done of the Prime
Minister is underestimate him and count
him out when he was facing some
difficult situations and all of those
opponents learned the hard way that that
was the wrong approach to take so I
think it would be entirely premature to
decide now based on yeah some bad some
bad circumstances that things are going
to be the same as they are right now a
year from now but the Liberal Party
absolutely has to treat this moment as a
critical moment learn from it and that's
exactly what the Prime Minister and and
that's where I'm trying for this
conversation to go is like look Justin
trudo is going to decide what Justin
trudo is going to do in his own time
right you know and you know a year of
bad polling on a b lection result is
those are data inputs for him to
consider but you know James if if he is
going to stay the caucus and a lot of
them I mean we're up into double digits
they want to get together they want to
talk and it's not just all people who
didn't get into cabinet who are anxious
and frustrated right now so like what
are the steps you start taking over the
summer to secure your ability to stay
and deal with the issues as Cameron has
outlined leaders typically don't survive
if their personal popularity is a drag
on the party if a if a party is more
popular than the leader leaders
typically don't survive and Justin
Trudeau is clearly a drag in the party
he's the most unpopular prime minister
polling wise I think in my lifetime I
think the worse than the nator uh Nat
and the worst parts of the post GST
Brian Mor Rooney numbers he is he is way
down there and is an absolute drag this
idea that you can pump up the liberal
party and Justin trau can just kind of
be the leader and then they'll maybe
come back and he's been underestimated
you know we we have a parliamentary
style government but we have
presidential style politics in this
country we do uh you know the news media
the way that our campaigns are run the
way that the emphasis on the leaders
it's all about the in our election uh
and campaign by following the leaders
all over the country and yes we have 343
candidates the next campaign but it's
leader Centric and when the leader is an
absolute drag and when you have over 60%
of Canadians now saying they will not
vote for Justin Shau the the absolute
Universe of liberal vote of the liberal
voting pool is 38% 38% of Canadians are
open to voting to liberals only 11% of
Canadians say they're certain to vote
for the Liberals in the next election
campaign the the numbers are lights out
so you can't pump up the liberal party
and then they'll the party will somehow
you know position itself in such a way
that it'll drag Justin Trudeau over the
finish line successfully it's not how
the Canadian system works that's not how
our political culture is driven so so
Andrew all the MPS I've spoken with and
and my colleagues we compare notes but
not names um you know they they they are
anxious they want to see change they but
the to a person they all say Justin
Trudeau has earned the right they are
loyal to him personally um and that
there is not going to be a Revolt I mean
do you think that that hold
uh the Loyalty holds because people will
get more anxious the closer I guess you
get to election time well sure but if
you're going to have a Revolt you need
to have somebody to Rally around and
they don't have that right now I mean
Freeland is the carbon copy of of
Trudeau most of that cabinet is made in
Trudeau's image uh I mean there's a
couple of uh you know maybe the the
Millers or the I mean there may be one
or two others in there who could
position them themselves as part of a
different generation coming up but by
and large there's nobody rally around
and I think that that's why you know my
sense is that the the prime minister is
safe in that job for as long as he wants
it until the election happens and that
is you know the problem and when I
listen to what Cameron's saying that's a
lot of whistling past the graveyard that
kind of sense of well don't
underestimate him he's always been
underestimated he's always come up ahead
that might be a little bit true but I
mean this is you know that's like
telling the electorate look you guys
just don't get it and after 8 years I
think they get it they're looking for
something different yeah Cameron it's
not my message to the electorate it's my
message to sort of this conversation
that is becomes a bit of a
self-fulfilling prophecy when we
constantly talk about when we just focus
on the speculation and the polling
numbers and and the worst thing that can
the Liberals can do right now is treat
this as not a big deal like I'm
absolutely saying they need to treat
this as a big deal what I'm hearing from
them right now is it sounds like they
are doing that yeah they shouldn't do
that too publicly they have to manage
these conversations internally and
that's something that Justin Trudeau
managed to eliminate in large part when
he took over as leader and I think it's
still given all of these circumstances
it's still pretty impressive that the
party is maintaining this degree of
unity and you know support around his
leadership uh despite everything that's
happening and I think that can carry
forward okay I got about 45 seconds
don't yeah don't tempt fate with that
last comment Cameron you know there's
Unity until there's not and you have one
former liberal MP out there these you
know from this former MP from Ponda that
was hardly ringing endorsement from the
liberal NP um that we heard today on the
bumper to this segment uh you know 343
rtings across the country I'm sure there
are reporters who are calling the riding
Association president from Nimo alurn
and the secretary of the riding
Association for Drummond and the riding
former candidate from St John's East and
etc etc you know the drip drip drip
that's likely to come it's entirely
predictable you've seen it in other
leaderships before of people credible or
not but will be have some kind of title
or or presence in the party who will
drip drip drip over time start saying
Trudeau's got to go I think the Prime
Minister needs to step down he needs to
reflect and you know when you have an
actual caucus members effectively saying
that right now just a couple days
removed it's going to be a long hot
summer if they don't find a way to Rally
things together and then okay Justin
Trudeau won't won't be given the
opportunity of a dignified exit that
that I think he thinks he deserves okay
I have to make a dignified exit because
we're out of time but I would just say
that there are uh l l Mar done a
byelection has got to be called by
September uh let's see where that one
goes I want to thank the power panel
Cameron mod James Moore and Andrew
